Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
