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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still